- by CALSTART, Baha M. Al-Alawi PhD., Owen MacDonnell, Cristiano Façanha PhD.

The report establishes projections of global zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (ZE-MHDV) sales targets through 2050 in alignment with the recently launched Global Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for trucks and buses. This analysis uses CALSTART’s Drive to Zero Market Projection Model to estimate the adoption rate of on-road ZE-MHDVs across countries. The tool incorporates the beachhead strategy to forecast ZE-MHDVs in different regional markets by vehicle segments. Results show early adoption for buses and passenger shuttles/vans, followed by single-unit trucks for urban and regional delivery and short/regional haul tractors, tailed closely by pickups/SUVs. These results reflect the timing for technology readiness of ZE technologies for different vehicle vocations, types and weights, and recognize that ZE technologies can be transferred across vehicle types as technologies evolve and costs decrease.